After Democrats added a seat to their Senate majority on Tuesday, there’s no denying they overperformed in this year’s midterms. Their messaging and early voting advantage both deserve credit. But conservative columnist David Winston believes poor Republican candidates played the deciding role, and he has the numbers to prove it.

Citing issues polls largely favoring Republicans and Republican House candidates winning margins, Winston concludes — and it’s hard to argue — that every competitive Senate seat Republicans lost was more than winnable. Had voters pulling the lever for Republican congresspeople across Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia voted for a Republican senator, too, the right would control Congress completely. Voters split their tickets, though, or simply didn’t vote for senator because candidates like Blake Masters and Herschel Walker were unpalatable. Issues matter, but so do candidates. And if, as Winston says, those candidates are more invested in vacuous personality than meaningful policy, voters will respond accordingly.