January 23, 2023
There’s no denying we live in politically interesting times. Our link today, from Democratic pollsters Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman, is more proof why. Reading the column’s first half, one would think it’s time for Republicans to hang up their spurs and call it an election cycle. Reading the second half, one would think the same of Democrats. That makes the column sound all over the place, but Schoen and Cooperman have the polling to back themselves up.
First up, Republicans. Thanks to some brutally unqualified, high-profile candidates, the party botched a very real opportunity to rack up a huge majority in the House and retake the Senate. While most of those candidates are gone now, their specter still hangs over the party. Republicans have a lot of ground to make up with the public. As long as they’re focused on investigations voters aren’t interested in, impeachments that won’t go anywhere, and playing chicken with the debt, they won’t succeed. They were put in office to put a check on the Biden administration without grinding government to a halt. If they can manage that, they could set themselves up for a strong 2024. They currently seem unwilling but, as I said, these are interesting times.
Second up, Democrats. Given Republican disarray, the party of FDR should be in the catbird seat. It’s not. A majority of voters don’t want its first-term president to run again and those polled blame Democrats by an almost two-to-one margin for the country’s top two issues. Add to this the president’s recent documents snafus, and the headache grows. Schoen and Cooperman see light at the end of the tunnel, though. A pivot to voters’ concerns (only 37% believe Biden shares their priorities) and bipartisan legislation (some in his party have shown a willingness to negotiate on the debt) could slingshot the president into 2024 with a record to run on. As party leader, it’s just up to him to right the ship. They believe he can do it. It’s not yet clear how interested he is, but we’ll see. Interesting times and all that.