The day after the incisive Supreme Court arguments on Trump’s eligibility to remain on Colorado’s primary ballot, I went on a bit of a tear over how the commentary didn’t match reality. Today, the day after President Biden’s State of the Union address, I find myself in a similar situation. Republican pundits are down on the speech, which is to be expected. Meanwhile, Democratic pundits are almost unanimously declaring it a tour-de-force. If that’s French for “missed opportunity,” I agree.

Biden and his speechwriters clearly viewed this State of the Union as a campaign speech. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, especially in an election year, but this is an election that will hinge on swing voters. Biden aimed his speech largely at his Democratic base. Rather than praise the Supreme Court for its decision to keep Trump on the ballot, he chastised it for Dobbs. Rather than sympathize with voters over higher prices, he yelled about lower inflation. Again, there’s nothing wrong with this, but parroting party talking points rather than integrating centrist concerns isn’t showing swing voters you hear them.

Also not helping Biden are the pundits and pols talking his speech up today. In painting it as a wild success — unvarnished proof of the President’s vitality — they reveal themselves to be as unserious as their conservative counterparts. Biden didn’t live down to Republicans’ worst caricatures of him, but he didn’t remotely resemble the man in Democrats’ post-speech rhetoric either. He delivered the speech capably, if not terribly impressively. He sounded energetic at times but looked quite old at others. By trying to rewrite the very obvious reality of the situation, liberal pundits insult the voters they need to win over.

I say all that to lead to this: statistician Nate Silver wrote an incredible column last week on the numeric value of a base voter versus a swing voter. A base voter counts for precisely one vote because they either vote for you or not at all. A swing voter counts for two votes because pulling them to your side doesn’t just mean you’re gaining a vote — the other candidate is also losing it. Last night was Biden’s best opportunity to speak to swing voters — not to gain them, but to keep them — before the Democratic convention in August. He didn’t take it. So if pundits want to paint last night as a victory, it was in the battle for his base. We’ll see if it costs him the war for the middle.