If yesterday’s link was about how some Republicans are looking to defeat Trump, today’s is about why. And it comes with numbers, which are always helpful.

The focus of David Winston’s terrific piece in Roll Call is independent voter statistics, and they’re eye-opening. 55% of independents disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as president. Independent disapproval of the political parties is almost identical. In normal times, not much else would need to be said. But these aren’t normal times. Despite Biden’s numbers and the political environment, independents voted for Democrats over Republicans 49% to 47%. Why? Because despite Biden’s poor numbers in this key portion of the electorate, Donald Trump’s are worse, and he won’t leave the spotlight.

Last night, the former president officially launched his 2024 campaign. In his speech, he claimed some voters hadn’t yet realized how bad things had gotten in his absence. Setting aside the poor politics of telling voters they don’t understand their lives, there’s always the possibility some independents could swing back to Trump if the economy enters a recession. But given their preferences in 2018, 2020, and now 2022, it appears it would take more than changes on the ground to win their votes. Trump would have to change, too, and that doesn’t seem likely. Republicans need to find an alternative… because no matter how unpopular Biden is, the numbers still aren’t on Trump’s side.