Over the past year, I’ve wondered on occasion if I’ve been Pollyannaish about the state of our politics. It’s not beyond reason that by choosing respectful writers over heated ones, I’ve traded one form of confirmation bias for another. On some level I probably have. And yet it’s hard to read Matthew Yglesias’ latest column on how normal our midterms are looking and not feel vindicated. Maybe that’s the confirmation bias talking, but I don’t think so.

There’s a lot to be said about Yglesias’ op-ed. What strikes me most is the equanimity with which he approaches the likely results before they even arrive. It’s not resignation. It’s understanding. As a staunch Democrat, he surely hopes for a different outcome. But the President’s party almost always suffers losses in his first midterm. With Biden’s middling approval ratings and inflation over 8%, why should this year be any different? Rather than bemoan what’s coming, he takes heart in how predictable it is. This even in the face of candidates like Blake Masters and Herschel Walker. Why? Because reaction to them has followed a predictable path, too. In a year when Republicans should be running away with those races, they aren’t. Voters still care about candidate quality.

Maybe America’s not as far off the mark as more self-involved pundits would have us believe. Maybe we can take a step back and see today’s results as a simple continuation of the past rather than a desperately needed (or disastrous) course-correction for the future. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic. After Yglesias’ column, at least I can say I’m in good company.